Piercing the Smokescreen-Good news for Gun Owners

[ravi.sharma]

Hi HVJ1,

That's a great analysis done, wont be surprised, if they hire you as one of their Financial Consultants.

The point to be discussed is, will these companies be allowed to trade freely in the civilian market or it will be again restricted to defence segment?

If they are entering and trying to capture the civilian market, then its a Breaking Good News for all of us here. For your analysis, i too strongly believe that they can make out a lot from the civilian market. Further they will be able to kick open the doors, which we are trying to push from ages, without much success.


Ravi.

[hvj1]

will these companies be allowed to trade freely in the civilian market or it will be again restricted to defence segment?

If they are entering and trying to capture the civilian market, then its a Breaking Good News for all of us here. For your analysis, i too strongly believe that they can make out a lot from the civilian market. Further they will be able to kick open the doors, which we are trying to push from ages, without much success.

Dear Ravi,
The MHA draft in point 8 (d) says the following;
-Sports weapons and NPB weapons may be supplied to registered arms dealers for sale to licence holders only.
If you consider the requirement of the military, para military and the police forces, the arms for civillians may only be a small fraction, maybe only 2%. But this 2% has a huge profit margin as compared to extemely slim margins available for the rest of the market (military,para, etc). A standard sidearm will have a profit margin of not more than Rs 5000/- but the numbers here are huge.
To quickly recover their kitty, sale (even in small) quantities (5000 units) quickly tides them over, then the rest is pure malai.
Yes you are correct, they will be able to kick open doors for us.
Finally, what I have submitted is an ANALYSIS. May happen, may not happen, but for the sake of all of us,I fervently hope that it comes through , even partly!
Best Regards.

[goodboy_mentor]

Thanks for chiming in.I was looking forward to comments from you , ABhijeet, m24, GBM and many more aficionados to help me get my 'take' correct.

Your analysis appears correct, if we keep in mind how the things are in our country and how they usually move. One cannot say with 100% certainty, that it is not possible. Neither one can say with 100% certainty, that this is the only thing possible.

[mundaire]

If HVJ1 is correct, then I guess we all may as well stop making the efforts we have been - towards getting the proposed amendments quashed? I mean, they (the volume of objections sent in by us) were NOT expected (confirmed both in the manner the proposed amendments were put up quietly on their website, the timing, NO advertisement etc. AND the look on the face of the person at MHA when we met him - UNLESS all of us are in on the conspiracy as well), on 31st Dec 09 the Home Minister said they would be notified within 1 week of the last date for receipt of public objections... so the fact that they have not yet been notified signifies that EITHER HVJ1 is correct and we wasted our time OR that all of us are in on the conspiracy along with the big money bags... May we at least know who these moneybags are? So that we can all at least know who to congratulate or to curse?

I apologise if I offend anyone, that is not my intent... I simply find this more than far fetched, especially in context of what has been going on in the past few days... unfortunately I am still unable to post anything publicly, request all of you to be patient for another 48 hours or so.

Cheers!
Abhijeet

[farhan.lateefi]

If HVJ1 is correct, then I guess we all may as well stop making the efforts we have been - towards getting the proposed amendments quashed? I mean, they (the volume of objections sent in by us) were NOT expected (confirmed both in the manner the proposed amendments were put up quietly on their website, the timing, NO advertisement etc. AND the look on the face of the person at MHA when we met him - UNLESS all of us are in on the conspiracy as well), on 31st Dec 09 the Home Minister said they would be notified within 1 week of the last date for receipt of public objections... so the fact that they have not yet been notified signifies that EITHER HVJ1 is correct and we wasted our time OR that all of us are in on the conspiracy along with the big money bags... May we at least know who these moneybags are? So that we can all at least know who to congratulate or to curse?

I apologise if I offend anyone, that is not my intent... I simply find this more than far fetched, especially in context of what has been going on in the past few days... unfortunately I am still unable to post anything publicly, request all of you to be patient for another 48 hours or so.

Cheers!
Abhijeet

[Nirvan]

Its a difficult choice now . Literally I am confused . The problem is whether to buy a gun now or not which is prohibitively expensive or wait for couple of years and see whether good guns comes to market after gun laws is amended . If the price of the handgun goes southward , I will be in a problem . I am in dilemma , as I want a branded handgun in a very good condition which is still in production . I recently got my licence and just been thinking in terms of Berettas , Smith and wessons , Walthers , Ceskas etc . That also the one from which minimum rounds has been fired from . I think no brand new gun from reputed company will come below 10+ Lakhs in the present Indian Market . . Confused , I am very confused

Regards,
Nirvan

[nagarifle]

Nirvan
go head and buy a gun, as any new production will take few years to sort out, we can look at 2-3 years before something hits the market.

Don't forget the above is only a opinion, not confirmed fact, and this is India,

[goodboy_mentor]

I apologise if I offend anyone, that is not my intent... I simply find this more than far fetched, especially in context of what has been going on in the past few days... unfortunately I am still unable to post anything publicly, request all of you to be patient for another 48 hours or so.

I do apologise, if I have unknowingly offended anyone by expressing my opinion. I suppose the reason for so much negative opinion about the government machinery is due the lethargic way it functions, the negative stories that float around and some possible personal experiences some may have gone through.

Its a difficult choice now . Literally I am confused . The problem is whether to buy a gun now or not which is prohibitively expensive or wait for couple of years and see whether good guns comes to market after gun laws is amended . If the price of the handgun goes southward , I will be in a problem . I am in dilemma , as I want a branded handgun in a very good condition which is still in production . I recently got my licence and just been thinking in terms of Berettas , Smith and wessons , Walthers , Ceskas etc . That also the one from which minimum rounds has been fired from . I think no brand new gun from reputed company will come below 10+ Lakhs in the present Indian Market . . Confused , I am very confused

I would go for IOF product, reason- I will not be a big looser even if the market is opened for private/foreign players anytime in future. IOF products are as reliable as those "foreign" brands available in India. If the market is opened, the prices in all probability will stabilize around the prices of IOF products. One thing is certain, that by going for IOF product today, I will not stand to loose as much money even if the price of IOF product falls to Rs 0, compared with the amount of money I stand to loose, if I go for an overpriced "foreign" product today.

[hvj1]

Dear Abhijeet,
Kindly refer to the MHA draft;
7.The Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP) obtained a decision from the Cabinet during 2001 - 2002 to allow manufacture of arms and ammunition in the private sector with nil or upto 26% FDI, and issued Industrial licences to three firms. Some requests have also been received to allow manufacture of sports weapons.

It is this particular point which really intrigued me, when I read the said draft for the first time, thereafter I have been reading it again and again. My dear friend, THREE FIRMS, who are POWERFUL enough to get the CABINET to approve a license??? Pardner, you talked about two ministries, yaahan pe to poora cabinet ka approval le liya!!!So that set me really thinking along the following lines;
1. Who are these guys?
2. What is so LUCRATIVE in the project, that drives them to get the cabinet approval?
3. Why those licenses, if issued, stayed dormant till now? (issued in 2001/2)
(a)I searched the internet, could not find the names of these three firms.But have a rough idea who they may be.SInce I do not know for a fact, there is no point talking about it.
(b)The LUCRATIVE aspect is spelt out clearly in my analysis.
(c)The reason we see a sudden flurry of activity, is also mentioned in the analysis (26/11 and the stark reality that our forces do not have the best of weapons, etc..etc.) You can now add the China angle too.
If these three firms and others come into the market, is this good or bad?
VERY GOOD, I say, for the country this is the need of the hour. This is what has swung the argument in favour of issuing and activating licenses. (I am not AGAINST people making money, in any case,they will go on in other ventures also).
As I said before, its a WIN WIN situation for ALL, the moneybags, the country,our armed forces, aam admi with gun license.
(Arre dost thoda phursat hai, bahut khujli hai, analysis kar rahan hoon armchair pe bet ke, aap to actually me shangharsh kar rahe ho, aap to sar ankhon pe mere, dost)
Finally, I love an argument because I get to see both sides.I may subscribe to either or neither, but it does leave me BETTER INFORMED!
No offence taken MATE, nor intentionally given.

[mundaire]

Ah, so this is merely an exercise in contrariness OK I'll bite further:

I know for a fact that two of those three firms was Mahindra & Mahindra and L&T - I think the names of all three were posted by someone here a while back... The approval of their licenses came with serious riders, which is why none of them ever set up production or R&D facilities. The riders were along the lines of - FDI was either not allowed or the limit was set so low that no one would be interested in collaborating with them (I forget which), they could ONLY produce arms & ammo for the government, they would have no prior approval of their designs but would have to submit their designs along with other (global) bidders for approval, they would then further have to compete on price etc. Also they COULD NOT sell anything they made locally to civilians OR export any of their production... meaning that if their designs/ prices did not match up, their entire investment went to pot with no exit route!!

Furthermore the government in power at the time was BJP+ and now it is Congress+

As to lucrative market, it would be so if arms licensing was rational and objective. As things stand today, fewer than 14,000 licenses get approved (all over India) each year! The Indian security forces requirement on the other hand is a MUCH BIGGER market, as they are talking about replacing tons of rifles/ carbines/ handguns - It is slated to be one of the single largest small arms orders in the world... lots of international firms would like to get in on this. But this of course comes without the huge margins mentioned in your analysis... unless I am mistaken, even the highly inefficient & corrupt IOF supplies their INSAS to the Indian Army for less than INR 10,000/-, when ordered in bulk AKs can be had internationally for half that price or thereabouts etc.

I believe the current tweaking of the 2001-02 policy was led by the fact that someone pointed out to them that they were going out and procuring equipment from Israel (Tavor) and even Singapore - while even though IOF may not be able to do so, private Indian firms could easily match the quality of goods and produce them locally, something which is strategically more desirable.

Lastly, once again the new manufacturing policy is ambivalent on selling locally to civilians - requiring MHA approval which will not be easy to get, hell our MHA seems hell bent on taking away even the little gun liberties we currently enjoy!! But it does quite nicely open up the door to exports. So while nicer guns may indeed be produced in India... we may not be the ones lining up to buy them. Just like we read posts by Americans reviewing & enjoying our Ishapore .303 & 7.62 rifles, we may very well end up experiencing these new guns only on online forums (at least most of us)...

[nagarifle]

Ah, so this is merely an exercise in contrariness OK I'll bite further:

I know for a fact that two of those three firms was Mahindra & Mahindra and L&T - I think the names of all three were posted by someone here a while back... The approval of their licenses came with serious riders, which is why none of them ever set up production or R&D facilities. The riders were along the lines of - FDI was either not allowed or the limit was set so low that no one would be interested in collaborating with them (I forget which), they could ONLY produce arms & ammo for the government, they would have no prior approval of their designs but would have to submit their designs along with other (global) bidders for approval, they would then further have to compete on price etc. Also they COULD NOT sell anything they made locally to civilians OR export any of their production... meaning that if their designs/ prices did not match up, their entire investment went to pot with no exit route!!

..

[Nirvan]

Now I am confused again on which side of the fence I should be ..... whether to be optimistic or pessimistic .

[nagarifle]

go and buy your gun. as this post is only an exercise in what may or may not happen. It does not mean you should wait, unlike any other product where the prices go down, guns is other way round it s going up all the time so forget what is written and buy your gun.

[hvj1]

8(b)Applications from units in the large scale sector which are capable of producing advanced weapons and investing more than Rs. 50 crore may, with or without FDI upto 26% be considered by DIPP.

8(d)Sports weapons and NPB weapons may be supplied to registered arms dealers for sale to licence holders only.

At least that looks realistic! They probably realized how idiotic their initial riders were, (its like you can produce kids but not engage in the act)
Typical babudom, Anyway, these are the facts stated in the MHA draft, however much we mangle them, the end results is what matters. I for one FIRMLY believe that Indian Gun Owners will have a good outcome.

[m24]

I for one FIRMLY believe that Indian Gun Owners will have a good outcome.

I agree with Master Shifu.

Regards