Where will all the stashed black money go?

[StampMaster]

daivī hyeṣhā guṇa-mayī mama māyā duratyayā
mām eva ye prapadyante māyām etāṁ taranti te

We perceive Maya (demonetization or scarping of Rs 500 and Rs1000 notes means punishing black money hoarders) only because we are in ignorance, but if become seated in knowledge, then Maya will cease to exist. They claim that the illusion will be dispelled and we will understand that the soul itself (going towards digital cash) is the Ultimate reality.

Governments and business all around the world and for decades follow strategy to implement what they want by giving a false flag and then giving a solution.

1. Who creates virus, malware etc computer security companies.
2. Who create artificial interest rates etc to boom/bust economy?? Governments.

People who think and fall in this type of mass hypnotism are just lame ducks.

Are you people not watching economic news???
1. 1 USD trillion bonds have been sold off in last one week.
2. Tension has been built-up between NATO and Russia and China.
3. Chines Yuan has been devalued by big numbers in recent time.
4. Indian bank does not have sufficient capital to provide loans. They've already given billions of rupee in loans which are not being paid (not even monthly interest). These business are getting working capital loans just to pay the interest and these loans are never to be re-paid. This is all your
money.
5. How many time have you seen gold and stock markets going down at the same time?

Some small business have started to accept scraped Rs500 and 1000 notes as they have to run business. From last week their business has been cut to 10-15%.
6. Why target 80% of population who hold 20% black money, when they can target 20% of rich who hoard 80% of black money. Never reveled name of black money hoarders from foreign banks till date.

[nagarifle]

something worth looking into, when was the money printed? who is the RBI governor?
when was he appointed[before or after the money was printed]
what or who was he advising before or during the time money was printed?
will leave the reader to search out the mystery .

will leave with this saying, one does not need to feel the rays of the sun to know that its shining.

[sa_ali]

i am not an economist to have point of view on all this but i know 1 thing i have already spent 10 hrs on 3 different occasions to withdraw basic money for house hold and deposit once.
When i went to deposit, I my self saw bora full of 500 and 1000 being handed over to cashier by Branch manager to process and they were getting processed as split amt of 49K. While the richie rich guy sat in the branch manager cubicle, tax payer like me stood in line for 3 hrs to deposit money and 90% of the people in line where daily wagers and lower income group folks. It is causing problem to 80% ppl and targetted 20% is working through back doors to work around it. One of the biggest source of corruption is the IT dept, all this will make their earning swell, they were already njoin good earning. What is being done to ensure that IT dept doesnt trouble tax payers and they dont pocket the money behind all this crack down, I am not sure what is being done on that front.

[airgun_novice]

Probably a bit OT since it deals more with my experiences and findings and views that outright answer to the above question raised by hvj1.
However since such "issues" are raised ad nauseam though I would put in a few Rs. 500 notes as well.


Is it just me or has someone else too noticed how the long serpentine lines outside the banks dropped TODAY following news YESTERDAY of GOI directive to apply indelible (voting) ink to guys who have already availed of the facility and seem to reappear over and over again killing interests of genuine account holders.

English media which I follow sometime online seems to be in overdrive bringing out how the people have lost their patience and how the poor are affected; all in all supposedly praising good idea to curb black money but stirring up social passions, especially of the most gullible, namely the internet savvy intellectuals like us who seem to gobble everything that is dished out in bytes.

1. A "mathadi" worker (daily wage earner who mostly works as a porter) says his "Sheth" paid him Rs. 500 for the week and he is running from bank to bank trying to get some new currency so he could eat/ feed/ etc. his family in remote part of Maharashtra. Not only that he says his Sheth paid him after Modi announced demonetisation and asked him to take it or forget it.

Now now all this may have been true, may be in Jumri Talaiyya, but those unfortunate souls from Mumbai like me who have seen the ground reality last few decades know the power of Mathadi Kamgar Unions. This Union can bring commodities market to a standstill when they strike. So this poor chap's story doesn't hold much water. Sorry.

2. A senior citizen standing in line outside HSBC Bank in Mulund (Mumbai) dies of stroke. His name is some Vartak (Vishwanath Vartak, I think). To give him company some other Sr. citizen breathes his last in AP/Telangana under similar cicumstances. This Mr. Vartak was shown dead on Marathi TV channels as well. Now HSBC issues clarification saying they do NOT have any branch in Mulund, Mumbai norany customer by that name. No further news about the poor soul from AP/ TL.

3. NETWORKS ARE DOWN - Plastic faces strain now. WOW ! Mastercard issues clarification that typically their network is designed and capable of handling 35 BILLION transaction every SECOND or MINUTE orso. Anyways, it's OOPS time for such vigilant journos. Let me see what all I have done ONLINE since the announcement:
3a. Ordered draft from HDFC - delivered in time
3b. Ordered groceries from ZOPNOW (Marathi speakers will smile at the name - so true) - no probs, delivered in time
3c. Transferred some money from ICICI to HDFC accounts - no problem
3d. Paid for my Birthday Cakes (nov 12th BTW - well, thank you) with my card - no problem
3e. Paid for my Family dinner at a costly restaurant with my card - no problem
3f. Ordered Domino's Pizza (one on one free ) - paid online - no problem
3g. Paid MSEB Bill - no problem
3h. Paid MTNL Bill - no problem
3i. Ordered MS Office Key from flipkart - no problem
3j. Ordered watch from Amazon - no problem
3k. Ordered Tee from Amazon (diff order) - no problem

No I do not own a satellite transponder nor any utility company nor do I work for NDM - rather it's the other way down. All along I did not face any issue with my Netbanking or Debit card.

4. Cash acceptance (Rs. 500 notes) issues - Suddenly there was a spurt in my driving (which set my heart down for a while I admit) but I paid using Rs. 500 notes at petrol pumps in Thane (Khopat), Mumbai (Dadar & Vikhroli). Nowhere did anyone ask me to take a hike. The reason for this sudden spurt was to drive to Worli (GVM) from Thane and back and to fetch my Mom from Dadar for taking her to Jupiter Hospital in Thane and now to drop her back to her home in South Mumbai. Yup I dd not panic and overfill - hence thsi multiple experience - all pleasant. At one spot in Khopat I did see and hear a biker quarrel with the pump attendant. he had asked for Rs. 50 worth of petrol and given a Rs. 1000 note and wanted change back. Sure why not blame NDM for this, eh ?! Also due to the above reasons I had to visit two chemists (drug stores) and they all accepted my Rs. 500 notes and returned change. No hassles.

5. Let us go back to other media news. My bai v/s your bhai or bhayya. I mean housemaids and vegetable vendors etc. MOST OF THEM ALL are members of some credit cooperatives (pat-pedhis). chit funds etc. NO ONE STASHES CASH AT HOME AND NONE AT ALL IN RS. 500 r Rs. 1000 notes. Sure I have read a report someplace that goes on like Sisterhood of Stashed Cash" or something like that. Imagine a housemaid who works hard all the day, earns money, runs her household, educates her kids etc. etc. and on top of it SAVES and that too at home and in Rs. 500/ 1000 notes. What does her husband do ? Let us believe that the SOB story is 100pc true - he drinks and drinks and beats her up and drinks and clobbers her and drinks and beats just about every kid he has (re)produced and drinks. He steals anything he can put his hand to and sells and drinks. And in huse of such a husband what does this classic maid do ? Stashes Rs. 500 and 1000 ke notes - just so the hubby darling would say "aaj desi nahi vilayati piyenge".

Now since we pay our maid in 500 denomination (most Mumbai maid prefer this higher denomination mode as when they carry their salary home most onlookers would suspect they have breast cancer - if you know how and where they carry them) - I was curious what hardship she would face. She simply clarified - "WE" (as in most maids) deposit our salary in banks or credit cooperatives the very next day unless we have some big expense (her daughter's a CS Engr - BE Mumbai Univ. partly due to some loans from my wife). Then we withdraw in 100s and 50s the money we need for the week. Very smart ladies !!! None of us keeps large denominations in our house for the fear of getting stolen (by close relatives)...

May be these maids from less unfortunate areas can take lessons from Mumbai maids - who this English media pouts as afflicted ones !

Similarly is the story the vendors from Bihar/ UP (and their knock-off states). These poor vendors and auto-drivers have to face extortion from "local authorities and parties" but also parties back home ! Believe it or not, they are often visited by representatives of political honchos from "back home" - ie. UP/ Bihar etc. - so they prefer to keep most of their money in banks apart from working capital. They of course MO some of their income to UP and Bihar (but in Bihar especially) where there are watchdogs who snitch on receipt of an MO and that household is duly visited. Hence unless need be large amounts of cash are safely deposited rather than stashed. Got this dope from my "fruitwala Bhaiyya". Had some insight a few years back from a UP autowala I had befriended while staying in the Western suburbs but inquired from this guy after MODIfied circumstances.

6. Let us look at tear-ful performance of a lady CM (who say we shall name Mumtaz Bano) of a state (which we shall name say Cut Hilsa). This lady extolled how her poor landless farmers suffer as they get paid weekly Rs. 500 and have to buy rations with that note ! I wonder if the lady is aware of MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM WAGES in her state which are way above 500/7 or 500/5 per day ? So is she condoning under payment of poor landless farmers in her state ? Is she saying she is a party to exploitation and semi-slavery of these poor souls ? Or is the reason different ? Perhaps the ones to suffer the most are her hoodlums from across the border that she uses to chop off the "left" and the "right" ? Just wondering...

7. Now how did I end up with having to dispose off the 500 notes ? I had withdrawn Rs. 15000 from the HDFC ATM the morning of the day whose evening our PM declared demonitisation. Last entire week I am doing with 5 notes of Rs. 100 which the ATM spat out last after 29 notes of 500. No - I haven't stood in bank lines but will do so soon to exchange the rest of them. Next two days I plan to enjoy toll free and (traffic jam free) Mumbai with petrol that's already filled in and petrol that awaits to fill in with another couple of Rs. 500 notes.

8. Now the fun part - DISCLAIMER
The above are my news, my views and my experiences. If I have upset any trouble-mongers (who stir up passions in society and increase tensions) or upset your political agenda in any way - too bad. Do not flame me for I ain't taking the bait.

regs
A.

[goodboy_mentor]

daivī hyeṣhā guṇa-mayī mama māyā duratyayā
mām eva ye prapadyante māyām etāṁ taranti te

We perceive Maya (demonetization or scarping of Rs 500 and Rs1000 notes means punishing black money hoarders) only because we are in ignorance, but if become seated in knowledge, then Maya will cease to exist. They claim that the illusion will be dispelled and we will understand that the soul itself (going towards digital cash) is the Ultimate reality.

Governments and business all around the world and for decades follow strategy to implement what they want by giving a false flag and then giving a solution.

1. Who creates virus, malware etc computer security companies.
2. Who create artificial interest rates etc to boom/bust economy?? Governments.

Thank you for translating the verses that too so clearly. Basic human behavior and emotions have not changed for thousands of years. They are still same and words of wisdom said earlier also hold good even today. The same emotions of dishonesty, greed, lust for power and hegemony, anger, jealousy, kindness, cruelty, love and the like were present thousands of years ago, they are even today. But there is a catch to it. What is it? It is do not let the politicians to interpret the scriptures for you. The day you allow them, they will "interpret" them in a manner to serve their interests.

People who think and fall in this type of mass hypnotism are just lame ducks.

There are three kinds of people who fall prey to this mass hypnotism or pretend to be so. Those who are truly ignorant and gullible. Then those who are too afraid to speak the truth openly. Then those who have an agenda to spread disinformation and create mass hypnotism and frenzy. Hitler and his scalawags were very good at creating mass hypnotism, frenzy and war mongering in his audience. His audience did not know in which direction they are being led into or what consequences all this will have. By the time they realized it was too late.

4. Indian bank does not have sufficient capital to provide loans. They've already given billions of rupee in loans which are not being paid (not even monthly interest). These business are getting working capital loans just to pay the interest and these loans are never to be re-paid. This is all your money.

What you are saying appears very true when one reads in media that Rs 48,0000 crore of loans of willful defaulters have been written off. Why the willful defaulters are not facing the law appears a mystery?

While 63 accounts in the list have been fully written off, 31 have been partially written off and six have been shown as non-performing assets (NPAs), reveal documents accessed by DNA. As on June 30, 2016, SBI has written off Rs 48,000 crore worth bad loans. The documents, however, don't specify the entry time of these "write-offs''.

Source http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-sb ... rs-2273834

6. Why target 80% of population who hold 20% black money, when they can target 20% of rich who hoard 80% of black money. Never reveled name of black money hoarders from foreign banks till date.

If the following is indeed true, then is any reason required why 80% of the population is being targeted and not the 20%?

Kejriwal further alleged that when the Prime Minister Modi was Gujarat’s Chief Minister, he took bribe from the Aditya Birla Group firm. “On 15 October 2013, the income tax department conducted raid on Shubendu Amitabh’s house. He was the president of the group executive of Aditya Birla Group. His Blackberry phones, laptop everything was thoroughly checked. They found a ledger entry in his laptop stating that on 16 November 2012, the Gujarat Chief Minister was paid money,” he said.

Source http://indianexpress.com/article/india/ ... y-4377136/

[Biren]

Hi all.

Honestly I haven't stood in line..as I got plastic & obedient employee who stood in line for me. Since I have clients from different stratus of society, the one from organised sector are least bothered for time being.. those from unorganised sectors are worried lot.. Middle class is cheering as if Pakistan will stop printing fakes... and Gov departments would stop accepting bribe.. Surgical strike in true sense.. This is same class which prefers purchasing goods if shopkeeper gives discount saying VAT add nae kiya..without bill... Business from unorganised sector well.. One of my client in garments gave advance in cash for new season & now doesn't have money to pay the rest.. same with those who placed further orders with him... farmer is sitting with his harvested crop as the aadti at mandi doesn't know what will be the price when mandi opens.. farmers sits with his thumbs twiddling as he has no cash to purchase seeds.. feritlzers.. in short there is uncertainty..*But Boss I am thinking will the price of vintage fringe weapon come down if I pay say ALL IN WHITE..... all 100 rupee notes..any taker..

Cheers
Biren
* Moderators am within the ambit of discussing relevent (RKBA)

[StampMaster]

Today's commoners update,

Tata Motors was conducting free service mela this week, so I planned to get my car service done. After depositing the car for service, I had to take Autoriksha to return. First time in my life, auto driver agreed to come on the fare i mentioned. I offered a fair fare (in fact, I didn't have sufficient change). He has started his day at 7am and I was his first customer today at 1030am.

In the evening, on way back to get my car, I had to book cab (again, shortage of change. Cant afford to get or spend change) so I can pay by Debit/Credit card. He has requested me if I can pay by cash. He, mentions that all his passengers have paid in with Dr/Cr card today. He make Rs 700-1200 a day, and has cash in his account. But cannot afford to take off a day, just to stand in bank queue for a mere Rs4500 (2 * Rs 2000 and 5*Rs 100) notes. As his purpose of change does not solve.

And my usual daily ride of 20+km everyday, shows me glimpses of big queue in from of PSU ATM centers and banks. And my usual conversation with my bankers friends brings update that they were out of cash yesterday morning and new cash has not been received till end of today (I am talking about private banks and in Hyderabad city). And till date no new Rs500 notes have been seen here.

It was 10:30 pm i went to fill fuel in my car (to avoid queue), i still find 25-30 people in queue at PSU ATM's )private ATM are closed today.

Code: Select all

So coming back to the example of 60,000 notes of Rs 1000/-. This amounts to Rs 6 Crores. The actual figures could be in lacs of crores. Now how will the government use this money, which is now out of circulation. This money will now be released to Nationalised banks through the RBI. The nationalised banks in turn will extend loans to the common man in the following areas;
1. Home Loans
2. Farmers, agricultural loans
3. Personal loan to cover education, vehicles etc.
4. To set up their own small scale business.

Now, what bothers me is "why should we even deposit our hard earned money in bank, and stand in queue wasting productive hours just to get back our own money and with capital controls"

If govt (any government in India) was genuine and true patriotic then they would have assured farmers a minimum price guarantee for their produce, instead of giving them more agricultural loans and making them indebted for life and after life.

And a final warning, more than 65% of necessary goods (fruits, vegetables, groceries etc) are transported through roadways in India. And at present about 30% of these truck drivers have abandoned their trucks midway, after running out of cash (as they do not have sufficient change for their daily food and needs)- http://bit.ly/2fzBTp0

Be prepared, be safe.

Added in 1 hour 1 minute 30 seconds:
Article found on internet

Today India is on the verge of a major social-political crisis, unless either the government backs off from the decision of banning the currency or some real magic happens. There is chaos in the streets and daily life is slowly but surely coming to a full halt.

What Modi did was not only heavy-handed, hugely arrogant, and of no value, it has been very badly implemented to boot — as everything in India always is — and carries the real potential of escalating and snowballing into something horrific. They could have seen that this was not going to end well by simply using primary school math.


Modi, Nationalism, and the Public School-Indoctrinated Middle Class

India today is like a cult under the influence of Narendra Modi — in which unlike in the past, not the poorest or uneducated citizens, but mostly members of the so-called educated middle class participate. Over the last two decades, people have been exposed to mass education, TV and nationalistic propaganda without being taught an iota of critical thinking skills.

In a society in which the concept of reason does not exist, this has made these people receptive to any kind of propaganda with a nationalistic or Hindutva bent. (Hindutva = fanatical Hinduism, which is rapidly metastasizing).

To aggrandize his position, Modi ordered a lot of military-hardware that India cannot afford, escalated tensions with Pakistan, and conducted what was very likely a fake surgical strike inside Pakistan. This united Indians under the flag.

Now, the demonetization of the Rs 500 and Rs 1000 banknotes was tagged with nationalism, anti-corruption, and anti-terrorism. Simple-minded, slogan-susceptible persons were hardwired to accept an erroneous causality. Those who did not go along were made to be afraid of being called pro-terrorist elements.

Those in the middle class have taken what they deem to be the higher moral ground, for they have mostly avoided suffering from the demonetization. Lacking moral instincts — which is unfortunately the case with much of Indian society, given its deep-rooted irrationality and superstitions — they cannot see or feel the pain of those who are suffering, even if that suffering stares into their faces.

But events are in motion that will likely very soon lead to these salaried members of the middle class starting to feel the pain as well. Their instinctive trust in Modi is likely within weeks of coming crashing down, not because of reasoned argument, but because they will be facing similar problems as the ones the common man is now facing.


Conversion to the New Currency

I went to convert my banned banknotes into new ones. The largest amount one can have converted is Rs 4,000 ($60), until further notice. There was a huge rush of people at the bank. Arguments were erupting, as people refused to stand in queues and the banks gave no explanation of what needed to be done. Fights were breaking out.



Day 1 of the banks opening. Poor, desperate people, whom the government treats like slaves or perhaps insects. Somehow these people have been brainwashed into thinking they live in a free country. My granddad kept photographs of British royalty on the walls of his office until his final days, for he had realized that the British had treated him much better.

Anyone who thinks that a country which wastes two hours of every citizen’s life to convert his own $60 can ever hope to be an economic power is drinking too much Kool-Aid and cannot do primary level math. Forget any possibility of removing unaccounted for money or reducing corruption, what Modi is doing is a recipe for the destruction of whatever legitimate economy there is.

[BBvideo=560,315]
[/BBvideo]

An endless queue to convert Rs 4,000 (USD 60). Will they actually go home with their new cash?


The Problems Go Much Deeper

Half of India’s citizens do not have a bank account and around 25% do not even have an ID card. These are the country’s poorest people, who have no way of converting their money – even if they learn how to do it, which is already a nigh insurmountable hurdle. Also, those who are old, disabled or sick have no choice but to suffer, for without personally visiting a bank branch office, one cannot convert one’s banknotes.



97% of the Indian economy is cash-based. With 88% of all outstanding currency no longer usable, the economy is coming to a standstill. The daily-wage laborer, who leads a hand-to-mouth existence in a country with GDP per capita of a mere $1,600, no longer has work, as his employer has no cash to pay his wages. His life is in utter chaos. He is not as smart as Modi — despite the fact that Modi has no real life experience except as a bully and perhaps in his early days as a tea-seller at a train-station. He has no clue where his life is headed from here.

These people are going hungry, and some have begun to raid food shops. People are dying for lack of treatment at hospitals. Old people are dying in the endless queues. Some are killing themselves, as they are unable to comprehend the situation and simply don’t know what to do. There are now hundreds of such stories in the media.

Small businesses are in shambles, and many will probably never recover. The Hindu wedding season has just started and people are left with unusable banknotes. Their personal and family lives are now an utter disaster.


Desperate people raiding groceries store.

Lacking moral and rational anchors, and hence compassion, members of the salaried middle class are unperturbed. Their salaries get taxed and most of the bribes they are getting end up in gold or property investments. In their minds, poor people and small businesses don’t matter. In the hypocritical culture of India, as long as the middle class is not suffering — for the time being — they prefer to take what they believe to be the higher moral ground.


Why This Problem Will Get Much Worse

Let us do a few simple numbers… What has been made illegal comprises 88% of the monetary value of all currency notes in circulation. In an economy based primarily on cash, the liquidity of cash is the lifeline of the economy. This requires that 88% of the new currency be rapidly dispersed into the market.

The Indian government has absolutely no history of being able to entertain a project of this type or magnitude ever and after the British left, India’s institutions have continued to deteriorate, so hope is not an option. If they fail to issue enough new bills, the very limited supply of Rs 100 notes will disappear within a few days.

Those who have no need to convert their money as all their cash is already in the banking system (as is the case with the salaried middle class), which they think is making them look like a heroes in the eyes of Modi and is giving them a sense of moral superiority – they are nothing but turkeys being groomed.

Banks are giving out a mere Rs 20,000 ($300) a week at best. Their lives will suffer and for all intents and purposes, their accounts are frozen. This is Cyprus ten times over – they just haven’t realized it yet.

Whichever way one looks at the above numbers, India’s economy is going to start suffocating, within weeks, if not within days. And a serious political and social crisis will take place, which will eventually acquire a life of its own. That is when the as of yet unperturbed salaried middle class wakes up with pain.

As in any irrational system, it is not reason and morality that will have convinced them to scuttle their hypocrisy and limited vision, but the violence and pain that they themselves will suffer.



Corruption
Politicians and bureaucrats of course cannot be seen queuing at the banks. Many bank branches apparently had their cash secretly replaced by the now-illegal bills before the first day of reopening. While no more than two bills of Rs 2000 each should have been collected, those better connected apparently haven’t had a problem with this and have been shown showing off packets of the new currency they have. All this cash will do nothing but end up under mattresses, as it has in the past.

As I walk around, corruption is everywhere and has grown exponentially, not only in financial terms but worst of all, in terms of the humiliation and degradation Indians are suffering. And I don’t know how a humiliated, soulless person can be anything but corrupt.

In village after village people have stopped working, even if they had work, as they can now join the queues at the banks to convert other people’s banknotes for a commission. For many young people, this is a wise entrepreneurial decision, as they are making many times the money they would have otherwise made for now.

But they are being trained to make money from non-productive activities — not from wealth-creation, but from unnecessary problems created by the government. Are they being groomed for a corruption-free society? One has to be naive to respond affirmatively.



Fear of the tax authorities means that the level of bribes being offered has gone up. Random people can now impersonate tax officers and collect bribes. People are in the grip of a fear psychosis. Many are emptying their bank deposit boxes, which means that crime will inevitably increase in coming days.

People are constantly worrying about what Modi’s next knee-jerk act might be and how to protect themselves against it. A police state is knocking at the doors.

A receptive environment has been created in which all kinds of rumors are taking wing. Today, salt is selling for Rs 400 ($6) per kilogram, as rumors have been making the rounds that it is about to disappear. This of course creates a situation in which it will actually disappear. The same is happening with sugar. The largely irrational masses are eagerly devouring a great many random rumors.

Lesson for Modi: Never, ever destabilize a society that works through conventions rather than reason, for it has no way to return to a normal state of affairs without a huge amount of pain and violence. Simply look at neighboring countries in order to understand this.

Chronic fear is slowly overtaking the mood of Indians, particularly those who run businesses. They have not only completely lost their trust in the government, but the tax department has been raiding people’s premises to scare those who are trying to salvage what they have.

They have stopped worrying about creating value. Everyone is talking about what to do with the banned banknotes, for even if they are fully accounted for, people fear that the increasingly rapacious tax authorities will make trouble anyway.

Finally, the new bills have actually worsened the counterfeiting problem they were supposed to solve. People do not have any experience with what the new banknotes look like. Within a mere three days, counterfeits are already in circulation. Contrary to the government’s claims, the new bills are not any more sophisticated than the old ones and are made of simple paper.



Why Has the Government Miscalculated?

The most productive job Modi ever had was running a tea-shop at a railway station, which he then gave up to become a bully. He is a complete stranger to complex thought. He is simplistic in his thinking and does not understand the second-order consequences of his actions.

First he increased Hindu fanaticism, then he participated in collectivizing people using nationalism, then he created problems with Kashmir through his heavy-handedness.

He completely failed to liberalize the economy or remove corruption from public life, which is an almost impossible job. Quite ironically, Modi is making it possible for public servants to escape scrutiny, the very people who are the fountainhead of all corruption.

A simplistic mind is also arrogant. Such a mind — unable to conceive the possibility of unintended consequences — thinks all that has to be done is to issue orders and everything will fall in place. Alas, this may work when shooting innocent people in Kashmir and in other destructive ventures, but when it comes to institutionalizing social progress, a more complex and intelligent approach is needed.

All of India’s institutions have continued to deteriorate since the British have left. They are rotting away and are in shambles. India had some breathing space over the past three decades because of the free gifts of the internet and cheap telephony which it got from the West.

This has merely made Indian governments more rapacious and so-called educated Indians more arrogant. They collectively lack the capacity to improve India’s institutions after having destroyed them. Demonetization may well be the straw that will break the camel’s back by accelerating the deterioration of India’s institutions toward the point of breakdown, perhaps in weeks if not already in coming days.


Conclusion – What Can One Do?

As Indian, be a speculator – even if the government does not like it and will blame you for all ills. Try to keep as much of your money in cash, in Rs 100 notes. Rs 2,000 notes have no value when you go shopping for groceries. Keep a supply of water and dried food sufficient for a few months’ needs.

Cash is disappearing and even before that the economy was stumbling. It might take just one more small domino — more strain on liquidity — to bring about systemic problems in the economy that could bring crucial transactions, businesses and supply lines to a halt.

[goodboy_mentor]

A very illuminating perspective on self styled nationalism and the public school Indoctrinated middle class. Due to the forcible attempt to suck the currency into banking system, the situation may become from bad to worse.

[hvj1]

Gentlemen,

Wow! I am simply amazed at the depth of the articles and learned opinions both clockwise and counter clockwise. I suppose with the passage of time, we will all be illuminated or disillusioned further, whatever the case may be.

However having read all the above posts, there is deep inside me and I am 100% certain that even those with dystopian views (Utopian" describes a society that's conceived to be perfect. Dystopian is the exact opposite — it describes an imaginary society that is as dehumanizing and as unpleasant as possible) hope (even against hope) that this demonetisation exercie will really lead us to an utopian world.

I am reminded of the great poem by Rabindranath Tagore which perfectly encapsulates what I feel AND I am sure that ALL of you also think and feel the same way...

Let My Country Awake

Where the mind is without fear and the head held high;
Where knowledge is free;
Where the world has not been broken up into fragments by narrow domestic walls;
Where words come out from the depth of truth;
Where tireless striving stretches its arms towards perfection;
Where the clear stream of reason has not lost its way into the dreary desert sand of dead habit;
Where the mind is led forward by Thee into ever-widening thought and action;
Into that heaven of freedom, my Father, let my country awake.

Rabindranath Tagore (1861-1941)

[PRITAM PATEL]

The effect was for
1) empowering banks in lieu of Basel norms
2) curbing terrorism ad naxalites
3) curbing large amount of fake currency
4) issuing 2k notes is profitable for the central bank and in return its dividend to government will help fiscal deficit cut.

It worked.

Can the common man understand this. No.

so Govt. sold them a perfect story.

Curruption is The Mother of All Black Babies(Monies,)
By killing babies Govt. is not going to address the Problam.....Mom is very furtile and will breed out more....untill killed....

Is this situation getting us to one man government and eventually towards Civil-war or Riot state....?

Any need to keep one's Weapons oiled and stock-up ammo ( highest capacity allowed) ?

By Forcibily imposing Arms Rules 2016( by ammendments), was Govt. planned to disarm citizenss well before taking Harsh Decisions ?

Curruption is The Mother of All Black Babies(Monies,)
By killing babies Govt. is not going to address the Problam.....Mom is very furtile and will breed out more....untill killed....

just few thoughts....

regards

[goodboy_mentor]

The effect was for
1) empowering banks in lieu of Basel norms

This is something interesting. If you could elaborate a bit more.

As per my personal theory, those who "financed" the current dispensation to win elections are now seeking their pound of flesh. They are the big borrowers who have already taken thousands of crores of loans from nationalized banks. As already mentioned in the media and opposition, many such willful defaulter loans have been written off and many more are intended. Banks do not have cash to write off more or lend now, this demonetization will help banks forcibly get cash of common people, write off loans and lend at lower interest rates to these borrowers. Rs 2000 notes will also help create inflation. The lower the lending rates and higher the inflation, the less borrowers will have to pay in real terms. Depending on the gap between lending rate and inflation, it can be practically an interest free loan or sometimes also in profit.

Is the following same story being replicated now on a larger scale?

CAG finds Rs 25,000 crore of 'disputed transactions' in Modi's Gujarat

Notwithstanding the tall development and financial management claims of the state, the Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG)'s five audit reports on the last leg of Narendra Modi's rule as the Gujarat Chief Minister have fished out disputed transactions worth Rs 25,000 crore, which point to fiscal profligacy and a rising debt burden.

Among several other things, the CAG has questioned the Gujarat government's claim of a Rs 5,570 crore revenue surplus during 2012-13 and described it as overstated.

The CAG reports were tabled on the last day of the State's budget session in the assembly on Friday, with the entire Opposition being suspended from the House before it staged a walk-out.

The CAG report states: "The Gujarat government wrongly booked expenditure of Rs 881 crore on account of grant-in-aid and expenditure of Rs 202.27 crore on subsidy resulting in overstatement of revenue surplus to the tune of Rs 1088.57 crore".

The report says that cheques worth Rs 2,667 crore were not cashed at all as of March 31, 2013, and that led to overstatement of expenditure.

Mounting debt

Similarly, the auditing watchdog points out that the State's fiscal liability (or debt burden) which was around Rs 50,000 crore during the BJP-ruled Keshubhai Patel regime rose astronomically after the Narendra Modi government took charge.

"It rose to Rs 1.05 lakh crore in 2008-2009 and is Rs 1.66 lakh crore in 2012-13," according to the CAG.

The auditor warns that increasing fiscal liabilities may lead to an unsustainable debt in the medium to long term.

Source http://www.dailymail.co.uk/indiahome/in ... jarat.html

2) curbing terrorism ad naxalites

Some senior police officers were quoted in the media telling that most of the funds come using legal channels in very small amounts which are practically impossible to detect. Then how demonetization will effect and for how long? Is the government proposing to do demonetization regularly after every few months?

3) curbing large amount of fake currency

Are the amounts of fake currency really large that warrant demonetization of around 86% of the currency?

The study estimated the overall incidence of fake notes to be around 250 per million pieces. The government told Parliament in December last year no reliable estimate of fake currency was available. Internal government estimates not released publicly indicated earlier that Rs 5,000 crore to Rs 10,000 crore in counterfeit currency was in circulation in the country at any given time.

Source http://www.hindustantimes.com/india/rs- ... EJAWK.html Same question how demonetization will effect and for how long? Is the government proposing to do demonetization regularly after every few months? How difficult is for counterfeiters to print new currency?

4) issuing 2k notes is profitable for the central bank and in return its dividend to government will help fiscal deficit cut.

How will Rs. two thousand notes curb inflation? Won't they be more profitable for counterfeiters for same investment and risk? How will they help curb generation, transportation and storage of black money and corruption?

It worked.

Can the common man understand this. No.

so Govt. sold them a perfect story.

Very true.

Is this situation getting us to one man government and eventually towards Civil-war or Riot state....?

Most probably yes. Even the Hon'ble Supreme Court has said the situation is very serious and there could be riots. It is already undeclared financial emergency. Your own money is being rationed to you.

Any need to keep one's Weapons oiled and stock-up ammo ( highest capacity allowed) ?

Capacity is immaterial. They already control your ammunition quota. Now they are also controlling how much your own money you can withdraw.

By Forcibily imposing Arms Rules 2016( by ammendments), was Govt. planned to disarm citizenss well before taking Harsh Decisions ?

Citizens were already disarmed earlier. They increased it even further.

[StampMaster]

We're already in a police state from many years. Disarmament of citizens itself is a state of emergency and unconstitutional.

Now, currently we're in financial crisis. Only that individuals dont understand basic economics in the right sense. How could someone ban 88% of currency circulation without prior alternate arrangements? And promise to replace and bring to normal everything in 50days?

And soon, before 30th Dec, govt may declare that they would not dispense cash any further, so please use only online medium (Debit, credit cards, NEFT, RTGS, Cheques- basically no physical cash) transactions.

[goodboy_mentor]

Curruption is The Mother of All Black Babies(Monies,)
By killing babies Govt. is not going to address the Problam.....Mom is very furtile and will breed out more....untill killed....

It is extremely unlikely if any government will kill it's own mother and ensuring it's own end in the process. The following article by Jayant Bhandari illustrates this well -

But will this eventually lead to a reduction in corruption? Let us use the gold market as an example to understand how the Indian economy operates. Any import of gold is subject to a cumulative tax of about 11%. The retail price of gold should be around 111% of the international price. Ironically, it mostly sells for 105% of the international price. Putting it simply, any law-abiding businessman must lose this 6% differential, ensuring his bankruptcy.

In reality most of the gold entering India is brought in by smugglers. These smugglers are happy to pass on almost half of their profit to consumers, while at the same time paying bribes to the Indian army, customs officials, other bureaucrats and politicians. If one wants to run a gold business, one must use smuggled gold if one wants to be competitive.

Virtually all businesses in India have to be run this way. Without paying bribes, no business has a hope of succeeding in India. Corruption is in the blood of India and is not easy to get rid of, even if by sheer luck India finds good political leaders one day.

Corruption is so omnipresent in India that you don’t really have to look for it. It is always there. What Modi is doing is merely political theater to fool the gullible. His decision to ban cash currency is actually proof that he has utterly failed to achieve any meaningful change in India.

I have yet to meet a public servant in India who does not ask for a bribe. During Modi’s reign, not only corruption has gone up, the state has become extremely heavy-handed. As what is happening today shows that the government’s anti-corruption measures themselves are ironically leading to a huge increase in corruption.

Source http://www.acting-man.com/?p=47768 More can be read at this link.

A government that is literally at war with it's own citizens, will it attack the root cause of corruption?

India Bans Cash, Now Gold?

India gold import ban rumoured … The Indian Bullion and Jewellers Association has warned members of a potential gold import ban … The association told Indian media the move could come by March 31 as part of the government’s ‘black money’ crackdown. –Mining Journal

Prime minister Narendra Modi recently decided to confiscate the cash of hundreds of millions of Indians, and now he may forbid Indians from importing gold.

This would have an immediate effect on gold supplies as India, despite the affinity of citizens for gold and silver, has very little in the way of domestic mining.

In part, this is because the government itself is consistently at war with Indian citizens over money and its control. This struggle has most recently manifested itself in India’s decision to remove, wholesale, large denomination bills from public circulation.

Source http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-1 ... h-now-gold

[airgun_novice]

Dear hvj1 et al,

Thank you starting this interesting thread. Getting to know all sides of the story and hence form a well-rounded opinion. So here's a few thoughts on NPA dedicated to you.

How hvj1's NPA did NOT rob *MY* savings kept in bank

Another piece of gyaan dished out by the frenzied English media online is how NPA of someone like the Beer Baron robbed my hard-earned money saved in bank. Hence my few Rs. 500 notes of thoughts on the topic.

So consider this hypothetical scenario -

hvj1 as we know has started a school that turn human kids into tigers. Now he plans to start another school where he turns tigers into humans. Mighty plans that require mighty funding. Of course investors, FDI, FII, Mutual Funds, Insurance companies etc. etc. are all ready since the Forbes list starts with hvj1, followed distantly by the "A" families of India ending with the "T" Sons also from India. In fact he loans to the "R" families of USA from time to time. He is that powerful and connected. But he still has to cough up Rs. 1000 crores from his own side to start the venture. So he approaches the General Manager, airgun_novice, of AGN Bank HQed and located conveniently in the raging sands of Rajasthan about 50km south west from Jaisalmer. GOI directives and the principles of banking business allows him to ask for the loan under his company's name, which as is not a proprietorship, is legally distinct from his own self. Nothing illegal as of yet. The AGN Bank has three common "aam aadmi" people having savings account. IFG1, IFG2, IFG3 are those people with savings as S1, S2, S3. This is so when hvj1 approaches AGN.

Now there are three situations.
1. Before hvj1 approaches for loan
2. After hvj1 gets his loan
3. After hvj1 defaults.

All the account-holding common folks have learnt to use computers at home to do something other than watching pornography, i.e. check their balances, carry out some transactions etc. So in the case of three scenarios above - they check their balances and to their wonder (or horror depending upon their political inclinations) they find that their balances are indeed S1, S2, S3 respectively. So their money is just as safe as at all times, unless panic has been deliberately set in and there's been a mad run on the bank. So whose money did hvj1 steal ? Has he stolen it yet ? No. Anything illegal yet ? No. Surely a guy can default and bank allows it to make money on penalties in addition to interest. This is how banks make their money.

Now can hvj1 offer his holdings as a collateral to another bank and get a loan legally ? Sure if it's allowed by AGN Bank. He can also get another loan under similar circumstances from the same bank i.e. AGN Bank. Nothing illegal yet. AGN Bank has even gone to the extent of offering SOPs to its most favourite customer by the way of revsing terms & conditions in the process known as RESTRUCTURING. No illegal yet.

Being MD and Chairman of the Corporation, hvj1 has gifted to himself trough his company a yatch, a few airplanes, a few lovenests all over the world and a mansion in London. Nothing illegal since many Nations and Governments are scanning the "investments" and the papers appear in order. hvj1 also has a trail of shell corporations stretching from Atlantic to Pacific and Arctic to Antarctic who have siphoned off huge chunks of converted money which was obtained legally - all under "investments", legally. Now he declares all his holdings and Corporations as running in losses and he has to obtain loans to pay interest on his loans. Illegal ? No - such a thing can happen under what is called Market Risks. Banks call them Non-performing Assets (NPAs). One fine day hvj1 catches a plane out of his own fleet and flies to London - legally. He has his passport, his Visa, his models, his Residency and his PERSONAL wealth all in order.

What do IFG1, IFG2, IFG3 do in the interim ? Oh these poor innocent people enjoy his booze, help him launder his money through one of the biggest laundromat called IPL and take vicarious pleasure out of photos of 2-piece bikini babes that he has put on every page of the calendar that he publishes and sells at exorbitant rates. Their heart beats with pumping of adrenaline but no heart bleats for them - like it does online nowadays, post-demonetisation. Anyway a year later they check the balances and see it is still S1, S2 and S3 respectively and they wonder which portion of their hard-earned money did hvj1 steal ? Must be true since these intellectuals publishing in English media say so and are aptly supported by politicians whose states have shown tremendous deterioration in spite of having inherited natural resources, bsusinesses and industries which have since shifted.

So who lost that money ? INDIA. In terms of investments, job creation, GDP etc. The same 1000 crores could have been given to 10 other industrialists who would have generated 1000 jobs each. Moreover since hvj1's companies have declared bankruptcy 10000 of his employees have to hunt for another jobs. That means 20000 jobless Indians are in the market now. That is where the loss is. New resources can not get tapped, new factors of production not harnessed. That's where the loss is. Loss of various capitals and loss in terms of collection of various taxes is where the real loss is. That is what IFG1, IFG2, IFG3 have "lost" as a Nation, though not as individual poor innocent Indians. After all with the fairy tale of democracy we live in the world of make believe - everything belongs to the people - from the snow of the Himalayas to the statue of Thiruvallur at Kanyakumari everything belongs to IFG1, IFG2, IFG3. Really ? So I presume they can travel free of cost in Indian Railways which they own under democracy norms. Ah ! Never Mind. But the sweetness of dreams ....

All said and done a check at the balances confirm that they are still at S1, S2 and S3. So hvj1 - you tried hard but still did not steal our hard-earned money saved in the bank.

A few points to contemplate

1. In the entire narrative above, Rs. 500 and 1000 notes did not appear. hvj1's NPA has nothing to do with 500/1000 notes. Most of transfers at this level happen in terms of electronic switch of digits. Have you ever "purchased anything with loans under facility to pay under EMI " ? That is exactly what hvj1 did above, except that his loans was many times larger than yours. Did the bank while giving you loans ask you to appear with a gladstone so you can pack it up with Rs. 500/ 1000 notes ? Or were you given a DD or a cashier's check ? Or may be just an electronic transfer credit into your loan account ? What may have happened is that he could have insisted that a portion of the loan in 500/1000 notes which were duly converted to Dollars or Euros but such large cash outflow is not permitted by ANY NATION, irrespective of currency. So he probably transferred to a number account in an overseas bank which accepts all the currencies and pays in all the currencies for a nominal fee of 20%. In other words hvj1 could have dumped his loans in INR in such an account and transferred converted to Grindlays in GBP or PNP in Euros for the comfort of his stay in Europe. SUCH BANKS WOULD SUFFER A HIT IN TERMS OF ANY CASH DEPOSITED IN 500/1000 AND SPIRITED OUT OF INDIA BY HAWALA OR POLITICIANS UNDER DIPLOMATIC PASSPORTS - thanks to banning of 500/1000 notes. Also to suffer along with hvj1 are similar accounts of drug barons, corrupt politicians who avail of diplomatic passports, secret agencies (Covert Ops), etc.

2. Your money, that you visualise in terms of currency notes do NOT belong to you. The notes - "your" money notes also belong to GOI. That is the reason why it is illegal to tear/ shred or burn *YOUR OWN MONEY* in India.

3. People shout that the current GOi "allowed" the Beer Baron to fly out of India. There must be some "vested interest". What they have forgotten or either have not been told is that his RESTRUCTURING happened not once but TWICE and that too under previous regime.

4. People on one hand complain that the current PM is acting like a dictator but ironically, he has stayed within the confines of Constitution. Such a person can not stop a guy flying out of India unless the court issues such an order. And our SC allowed the ED, permission to issue orders to "ATTACH" the Beer Baron's personal properties in INDIA (not OVERSEAS - mind you) only in Oct-Nov 2016 !!! So who is to blame for the flight of capital and the defaulter ?

5. Blaming NDM for everything is like blaming the Peshwas for bad times befalling the Maratha Empire, though the regional satraps acted as traitors to their King and signing treaties with the British on the side, for title of "Raje", ironically while the Peshwas remained loyal and subservient to the same Chhatrapati of Satara all their tenure, silently shouldering the blame.

6. Why are these intellectuals stirring up passions in society and fomenting unrest ?

DISCLAIMERS:
1. The usual and previous apply.
2. Any parallel to real is coincidental and unintentional etc. etc. and under Euclid, non-interesecting
3. Author does not promote drinking beer. Alcohol kills. Beer Kills. Deer kills.

regs
A.

[goodboy_mentor]

All said and done a check at the balances confirm that they are still at S1, S2 and S3.

With due respect, either the esteemed member AGN is not aware of something called fractional reserve banking and the games played behind it or if he is fully aware then it would be reasonable to conclude he is trying to convince about something he is aware is incorrect. No offense intended. Answering following simple questions should clarify the facts -

Loan given or repaid via cheque or demand draft is immaterial because the accounts are finally settled in cash. When AGN Bank is giving loan to hvj1, from where is AGN Bank getting the cash to hand over to hvj1 as loan? It is either the cash deposited by the account holders of AGN Bank or the cash borrowed from RBI.

When hvj1 does not pay back the loan to AGN Bank, how does the AGN Bank pay the cash back to it's depositors? It has to borrow the cash from somewhere. It borrows cash from RBI. From where RBI gets the cash? It has to print cash. If it prints more cash into circulation what happens? It causes inflation. Who is the looser? Those who deposited money with AGN Bank as well as all those who trust the currency. Why? Because the money in their pockets even though not loosing face value, looses original value. Balances are no doubt S1, S2 and S3 but they have been made good by printing more cash into circulation. The purchasing power of S1, S2 and S3 has got reduced. So who are the losers? Those who placed their trust in the banking system and indirectly in the government.

So hvj1 - you tried hard but still did not steal our hard-earned money saved in the bank.

hvj1 did not try hard because he is smart enough to steal the real value of the currency and transfer that value to buy assets and properties all over the world. And at the same time he and his supporters are clever enough to ensure that account holders stay dis-informed/ misinformed, happily clinging to the face values of S1, S2 and S3(now minus the value stolen by hvj1) and keep singing praises of government.

A few points to contemplate

1. In the entire narrative above, Rs. 500 and 1000 notes did not appear. hvj1's NPA has nothing to do with 500/1000 notes. Most of transfers at this level happen in terms of electronic switch of digits. Have you ever "purchased anything with loans under facility to pay under EMI " ? That is exactly what hvj1 did above, except that his loans was many times larger than yours. Did the bank while giving you loans ask you to appear with a gladstone so you can pack it up with Rs. 500/ 1000 notes ? Or were you given a DD or a cashier's check ? Or may be just an electronic transfer credit into your loan account ? What may have happened is that he could have insisted that a portion of the loan in 500/1000 notes which were duly converted to Dollars or Euros but such large cash outflow is not permitted by ANY NATION, irrespective of currency. So he probably transferred to a number account in an overseas bank which accepts all the currencies and pays in all the currencies for a nominal fee of 20%. In other words hvj1 could have dumped his loans in INR in such an account and transferred converted to Grindlays in GBP or PNP in Euros for the comfort of his stay in Europe. SUCH BANKS WOULD SUFFER A HIT IN TERMS OF ANY CASH DEPOSITED IN 500/1000 AND SPIRITED OUT OF INDIA BY HAWALA OR POLITICIANS UNDER DIPLOMATIC PASSPORTS - thanks to banning of 500/1000 notes. Also to suffer along with hvj1 are similar accounts of drug barons, corrupt politicians who avail of diplomatic passports, secret agencies (Covert Ops), etc.

As explained earlier, it is immaterial how he transferred the value, electronically or by DD, cheque or cash. So long he is not returning the amount(regardless of the mode), in order to pay back the account holders, he is forcing the banking system to print more currency at the cost of those who trust the currency.

2. Your money, that you visualise in terms of currency notes do NOT belong to you. The notes - "your" money notes also belong to GOI. That is the reason why it is illegal to tear/ shred or burn *YOUR OWN MONEY* in India.

Currency notes are something like a bearer cheque issued by government. If I have earned a cheque from you, it belongs to me now. You are no more it's owner. You cannot forcibly take it from me. Similarly those who have earned the currency notes are their rightful owners and not the government.

The currency notes are issued by GOI in trust on behalf of people of India through an act of parliament called RBI Act. In pursuant of that trust, RBI has written a promise on every currency note, you may read it. This promise, the trust on currency notes must be honored under all circumstances. By this demonetization that trust has been betrayed. GOI is the holder of trust(trustee) not the owner. When the owners of currency notes deposit them in bank, the bank is the trustee. Banks are failing to honor that trust when they are unable to pay their customers the amount that they owe them.

It is illegal to tear, burn or even produce currency notes so that correct quantity of notes remain in circulation and the trust can be honored.

3. People shout that the current GOi "allowed" the Beer Baron to fly out of India. There must be some "vested interest". What they have forgotten or either have not been told is that his RESTRUCTURING happened not once but TWICE and that too under previous regime.

Not a bird can fly out of the country if the GOI so desires. If not, a thousand loopholes can be created.

4. People on one hand complain that the current PM is acting like a dictator but ironically, he has stayed within the confines of Constitution. Such a person can not stop a guy flying out of India unless the court issues such an order. And our SC allowed the ED, permission to issue orders to "ATTACH" the Beer Baron's personal properties in INDIA (not OVERSEAS - mind you) only in Oct-Nov 2016 !!! So who is to blame for the flight of capital and the defaulter ?

I would not like to make comments against the office of PM. But as an individual this person has a very controversial track record. It is well known.

As said earlier, if GOI wants not a bird can fly out of the country if it so desires. There are many ways to stop a person or his capital from flying out of the country. As far as question of Supreme Court is concerned, it's jurisdiction is limited within this country. It cannot attach properties in other countries. For that the GOI will have to talk to those countries.

5. Blaming NDM for everything is like blaming the Peshwas for bad times befalling the Maratha Empire, though the regional satraps acted as traitors to their King and signing treaties with the British on the side, for title of "Raje", ironically while the Peshwas remained loyal and subservient to the same Chhatrapati of Satara all their tenure, silently shouldering the blame.

Comparing the Maratha Empire with the secular democratic republic is bit out of context. Maratha Empire was for Maratha nation. Indian sub continent is not a private property of one particular nation or people. Indian Nation State is made up of multiple nations or people with multiple cultural, economic, linguistic and political interests. In a democracy everyone has right to express his opinions or dissent. This is the foundation and test of democracy. Dissenting opinion is not treason. If the State thinks that dissenting opinion is treason and will cause it's collapse, disintegration and so on, then the very foundations of such a State are on flimsy grounds.

6. Why are these intellectuals stirring up passions in society and fomenting unrest ?

Since when and for whom expressing dissent or opinions and exposing the truth became "stirring up passions in society and fomenting unrest"?