Egypt

[timmy]

Perhaps some of you are watching the events in Egypt unfolding right now. One of the aspects of these events that I find interesting concerns the roving bands of armed looters, some of whom are (apparently) escaped prisoners armed with automatic weapons captured during their prison break.

The newscasters live on the scene in Egypt (mainly Cairo and Alexandria, it seems) all are showing videos and telling stories of citizens in neighborhoods banding together and setting up checkpoints to stop these roving goons before they enter the neighborhood for bad purposes. These citizens are protecting their neighborhoods, in the words of one correspondent, armed with samurai swords and two by fours (raw lumber).

I am thinking that the average Egyptian citizen is probably not much different than someone living in an urban center anywhere else: If you were to ask one if a need was felt for being armed, they may well have responded, "What for?" But now, I'm sure that there are many of them who wished they were armed.

Similarly, I'm sure that, if you asked one of them a month or two ago: Do you feel that an urban disruption or disturbance is imminent that would require you to be armed?, that many would say no, but now wish they were armed.

My point is this: Wrapped up in our daily lives, we seldom can predict the outbreak of an incident where a firearm may be needed for protection, whether that incident is individual or societal in nature. After all, the US CIA couldn't even predict the fall of Bolshevism in the Soviet Union or the overthrow of the Shah in Iran. If a large, well funded organization like the CIA cannot predict a major upheaval like the ones I've mentioned, is it reasonable to expect that an ordinary citizen could predict the social events requiring firearm ownership? I think not.

[goodboy_mentor]

Wrapped up in our daily lives, we seldom can predict the outbreak of an incident where a firearm may be needed for protection, whether that incident is individual or societal in nature.

[dr.jayakumar]

how can anyone predict,if the cia is involved in this?

[Subal das]

CIA will be last who interested in such happenings. In case of elections about 30% will be with fundamentalists.

CIA couldn't even predict the fall of Bolshevism in the Soviet Union

they are who directly orchestrated the whole process.

what is going on in Egypt can happen in India too. One of such prerequisites is dysfunctional judiciary system.

[sa_ali]

[nvnrjn]

I read a quote somewhere. I think it fits best here.
"Expect the best, be prepared for the worst"

[Vikram]

Gents,

Some of you are missing the point.Timmy is not talking about politics. He is talking about the unpredictability of life- how violence can manifest in our lives without warning.He is talking about being prepared for such an eventuality instead praying that we did before such a need is felt.

Bottom line-being prepared is a lot better than trying to react as the situation develops.

Very well put,Tim. Quite a few Indian cities are not unused to rioting and looting.Though such events are not routine, they are not uncommon. There were times when I felt very safe with the family blunderbuss loaded with slugs at my bedside when there were riots very close to our neighbourhood in Hyderabad.

Best-
Vikram

[PRITAM PATEL]

I always have nightmares of horrifying incidents like this

I am very much sure about same will happen in INDIA (due to scandals like CWG, food price hike, difference between rich and poor men's life) with in 10-15 year

will I be able to protect my family and property with .22 cal rifle and 50 cartridges ?

during Los Angeles riot/ loot chines origin shop owners had protected their property by using gun power

Hope I would had lived in USA

[Subal das]

Lenin defines revolutionary situation as - higher class cannot rule as before and lover classes cannot live as before. pretty much same as we have in India nowadays.

Ironically, legal system in India can be a major factor complimenting sliding of the the whole system out of hands.

Multi‐national force experience in Iraq and Afghanistan has shown that if any component of the legal system (police, prosecution, judiciary or penal) ceases to function, the
entire system breaks down. Example: as of late 2008, Afghanistan had a robust corruption investigations unit with over 300 active criminal cases, yet the system as a whole failed to process cases through judicial review due to a lack of prosecutorial follow‐through and appropriate court with venue. Vignette: In 2007 in Fallujah, local judges failed to report for work and perform their duties due to al Qaida intimidation. As a result, detention facilities remained intolerably overcrowded, and the police became frustrated and saw no point in making additional arrests or conducting thorough investigations. Absent due process, many innocent detainees languished in sub‐standard prison facilities and became prime recruitment candidates for al Qaida. Furthermore, due to overcrowded conditions, some detainees were released.

Concept of Operations (CONOPS) for Police Intelligence Operations (PIO) U.S. Army Militarry Police School

I was in Delhi in 1999 or 2000 during industries relocation riots, about 2 mil of people went on streets ... cops just watch.

[timmy]

Vikram, you've got that right. The point I was making with the examples that I cited were meant to demonstrate that all of the money and all of the experts could still be wrong, so how could the normal, everyday citizen be expected to know when a civil disturbance that threatened his family or life break out?

Now I don't mean to compare India with the USA, for better or for worse here. However, Having grown up in the 60s and having a strong recollection of the news casts of the South Side of Chicago (only from helicopters) looking exactly like the contemporary films of the Vietnam War is something I will never forget, since my Dad had to make his way through that zone to go to work every day. We knew what it was like to worry for his safety, and also recall the night he took his work partner to the hospital...

Anyway, I digress. The US cities broke out in riots that summer, and personally, I believe it could happen again. There are some strange and powerful dynamics that happen in those situations where injustice or similar thing is suddenly fanned from an ember into a flame, or worse.

The police work by concentration of force. In other words, they operate relatively effectively when they (a small minority) concentrate their forces on an isolated goon or two. When all society breaks down, such as what we see in Egypt, then there is no way their small numbers can control the masses. In that case the Army is brought in, and the Army isn't trained to deal with individual roving goons, only mass movements.

I would assert that being able to protect one's self in these and in individual instances of violence is a basic right -- something we all hold here. Since we all hold this concept to be true here, I would simply be "preaching to the choir" in this case, except that the events in Egypt offer a different perspective and another valid reason for RKBA.

Politicians and often police will assure the public that they have everything in control, but those who have died in Egyptian urban violence at the hands of goons will no longer be reassured by the blandishments of politicians with some social agenda based upon unrealistic assumptions regarding the power of government, the advance of civilization, or human nature.

[Subal das]

Sorry, I maybe hijacking this thread, just want to use opportunity to take a closer look on it.

In India politicians and military policy makers are in denial, they do not consider that problem with resistance and insurgency even exist. according to Indian military doctrine armed operational organized insurgency inside country is a situation of relative piece. firs it has to be recognized as a war. What kind of war do we have in modern world, it is always insurgency against regular army. That called fourth generation warfare and not Indian military or paramilitary do have any general or operational concept on that matter.



To effectively deal with insurgency army must have to develop concept of operations, and law must be changed to allow deployment of conventional army against insurgents.
If this issues not addressed , now then later it can be too late and millions of people will die. For example US Spec Ops, I bet Chinese too, have detailed concept of operation on how to support insurgency out side of others countries.

Leaders of extremist organizations can exploit rioting situation to support and promote their causes, what ever it is, but really interesting question is who supporting them.
Why it right now situation in Tunis and Egypt exploded, because huge organizational work been completed by local extremists and it is well know fact that insurgency cannot succeed without outside country support.

US Spec Ops for example have great experience supporting insurgency and conducting so called Limited Wars in far away lands, but close to Americans interest .

One of less known such Limited War was conducted by them in Tibet in 1955–1965, result about 2 mil Tibetans were killed. What may happens in India is that some not so friendly country will conduct such limited war on Indian territory and no one will even know what is going on. That is not denial?? that is complete blindness.

If situation in India will explode - no one will be save. In other countries people in similar scenarios creating local militia units. In my time line it is right time, right now to start creating such units Simply having guns in a house may be not enough.

[Vikram]

Subal,

Thought provoking and highly interesting as a subject of debate your words are,the forum rules do not allow political topics unless they are related to RKBA or firearms.Any posts addressing the subject Timmy posted are fine.


Best-
Vikram

[Subal das]

my post as I can see exactly related to situation when people may need guns

As Vikram has pointed out, Board policy does not allow political discussion unless it is directly related to the subject of RKBA. As this thread is diverging into other areas, it will be locked. An old saying runs: "A word to the wise is sufficient." Hopefully, that will prove true in this case.